Square Feet: What's the chance home prices will fall in Santa Clara County? About half n' half, insurance company says

The from PMI Mortgage Insurance Co. was released a few old age ago, and it states that the likeliness that place terms in the San Jose subway country will be less two years from now than they are now is .... drumroll .... about half. Fifty-one percent, actually, is the company's statement on how likely it is that our place terms will be less in 2010 than they are now. (I experience most householders who've been paying attending probably could have got come up up with a anticipation like that -- can person delight wage us a clump of money to publish that prediction??!)

Anyway, the company doesn't do any claims about how much less place terms would be if they drop more, unfortunately for those in hunt of a crystal ball.

And where are the topographic points the sages at PMI state place terms are most likely to fall? Riverside-San Bernardino (93 percentage likely), Las Vegas (91 percent) and Orlando (85 percent).

The Oakland metro's opportunities are 63 percent, and San Francisco and San Mateo earned a 30 percentage rating.

Here's what PMI have to state about it's methodology (taken from their website): The Hazard Index is a proprietorship statistical theoretical account that measurements geographical house terms hazard by predicting the chance that place terms in the nation's 381 biggest metropolitan statistical countries (MSAs) and metropolitan statistical country divisions (MSADs) (as measured by the House Price Index from the Office of Federal Soldier Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)) volition be less in two years. The PMI U.S. Market Hazard Index is based on information including the OFHEO House Price Index, labour marketplace statistics from the Agency of Labor Statistics, and the PMI Affordability Index, which utilizes local per capita family income, place terms appreciation, and a blended mortgage charge per unit to cipher the local share of mortgage payment to income relation to its baseline twelvemonth of 1995. The PMI U.S. Market Hazard Index scale of measurement scopes from one to 100 and translates to a percentage. For example, a mark of 50 bespeaks a 50 percentage opportunity that place terms will be less in two years.